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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Trump once again issued a tariff threat, and the US dollar fell to a new low in a month." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On the Asian session on Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell, and the US dollar fell across the board last Friday, after US President Trump once again threatened to escalate the trade war and suggested that a 50% tariff was imposed on the EU from June 1, and investors sold the US dollar one after another. This has once again raised concerns about the impact of tariffs on the world economy and global trade. The focus will be on the speech of the European Central Bank President Lagarde at the Herti Academy in Berlin during the day, and the European Central Bank Administration Nagel made a speech.
Dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index hovers around 99, and market participants will pay attention to comments from Fed officials, as well as minutes of FOMC meetings, preliminary first-quarter GDP, core PCE price index, personal income and expenditure, durable goods orders, and commodity trade balance. These data will be released this week to obtain new clues about the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy direction. The daily chart of the US dollar index shows a significant downward trend. The adjustment of the exchange rate since the high of 109.8799 has evolved into a medium-term downward trend, and is currently testing key support areas around 99.20. From the analysis of the K-line pattern, the exchange rate has been falling below multiple important support levels, including the previous 100 integer mark, indicating strong bear momentum.
IBD columnist pointed out that Trump gave a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on April 9. However, when the suspension period was halfway through, the United States had only reached a preliminary agreement with the United Kingdom. While Trump's recent trade attitude has shifted to appease the market, what will happen after the 90-day moratorium on peer tariffs ends? Trump said last week that few countries may reach a deal with the United States before the July 8 deadline. He said trading partners should receive a letter in the next two to three weeks stating “what they will pay for doing business in the United States”. On May 18, Becent said that countries that are insincerely negotiating will face reciprocal tariffs at the "April 2 level". He also raised the possibility of imposing regional tariffs rather than levied by country. But after Trump reneged on his word several times, trading partners may be betting that Trump will only perform "mouth skills" again and will not put it into action.
As Trump facilitated andThe outlook for the flat agreement is bleak, with Ukrainian dollar bonds causing investors more than 10% losses so far in 2025, the worst performing in emerging and cutting-edge markets. And at the beginning of the year, some Ukrainian bond prices have almost doubled since reorganization in August last year and boosted the entire Eastern European market. London hedge fund FrontierRoad has turned to corporate bonds to avoid geopolitical risks. Although Bank of America maintained its over-allocation recommendation, it warned of the "downside risks" brought by the continued war. Morgan Stanley expects the conflict to continue until 2025. "The market has fallen back to pre-Trump's election level," said Viktor Szabo, director of Amber Investment. The major stock indexes of Warsaw, Prague and Budapest all exceeded 30% in the US dollar during the year, with Hungarian forin, Czech Krone and Polish Zloty leading the rise in emerging market currencies. But the price of Ukraine's zero-interest bonds due in 2035 has fallen to 50 cents from 70 cents in February.
Japanese Economic Regeneration Minister Ryomasa Akazawa said on Sunday that the schedule for the next round of Japan-US trade negotiations will begin next week. Talks are still being arranged and he hopes to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent during his next visit. According to reports, Ryo Akasawa had just returned from Washington and spoke to reporters at Haneda Airport. He said an agreement will only be reached after all the problems are resolved as a whole. This means that nothing is reached until all issues are agreed upon. “So, I won’t comment on how much progress we have made,” he said.
People data from American institutions show that more than half of Americans say that the tariffs imposed by US President Trump on other countries have had a negative impact on their family financial situation. The survey data shows: "Most (56%) of adult Americans believe that if Trump's tariffs are not implemented, their families' financial situation will be better." The survey data shows that about 52% of respondents believe that the (government) promised economic benefits cannot offset economic losses. About 49% of respondents believe that imposing tariffs will have a negative impact on the US economy. According to the agency, 69% of American residents believe that the expropriation will lead to rising prices of daily necessities. The report pointed out that Trump himself foresaw such consequences. He said that American children may only get "two dolls" instead of the past thirty, because the price of dolls will be "a few dollars more expensive."
Japanese Economic Regeneration Minister Ryomasato Akasawa said that his goal is to resolve the tariff negotiations in a timely manner before US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's meeting in June. "The leaders of both countries are looking forward to their meeting, which has been confirmed," Akazawa Ryomasa told reporters after meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik and U.S. Trade Representative Greer in Washington on Friday. "We will keep this in mind and do our best to do our best.". "Before his comments, Trump and Shigeru Ishiba held a call, promising to meet during the G7 summit next month. Hours later, Trump said he agreed to a partnership between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel (X.N).
Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenny in a report The lawsuit said the yen should continue to be supported, as Japan's latest inflation data should keep the possibility of another rate hike later this year. He said that while expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike this year are not high, the Bank of Japan's expectations for a rate hike this year are also unique given the other G10 central banks cutting interest rates. This should put pressure on the dollar against the yen, as market participants are more confident about the prospect of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. ”
After the U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump’s tax and expenditure bill on Thursday, concerns about rising U.S. government debt continued to put pressure on the dollar. Commerzbank currency analyst Antje Praefcke said in a report that the bill was intended to permanentize the tax cuts introduced by Trump, but the funds provided for it are unstable, so it can be assumed that the budget deficit will continue to expand. She said: “I’m curious when the market will realize that this is the next major structural burden for the dollar. ”
The RBI research team said in a report that the RBI may cut interest rates three more times by the end of 2025. They wrote that considering that inflation is not a problem at present, the current sluggish economic growth may mean that the RBI will need to continue to relax monetary policy. They added that if the GDP data for January-March is lower than expected, the RBI may have to lower its current fiscal year's growth forecast of 6.5%.
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