Trump's "change of face" caused a huge shock! Non-agricultural, PCE, GDP and other major data will be released one after another

As concerns surrounding Fed independence and ongoing trade frictions dissipate early this week, this week can be seen as a positive week. U.S. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Becent eased their remarks, showing they were considering reaching a deal with China as soon as possible.

The remarks of both sides played an important role in restoring market confidence, which led to a significant shift in market sentiment. Risk assets have steadily risen most of the week, while safe-haven assets have suffered a setback.

On Friday, U.S. stock markets performed poorly, and market participants continued to wait for more information about the tariff war. Market sentiment remains a little uneasy after US President Trump said that if foreign import tariffs reach 50% within one year, he will regard it as a "complete victory."

However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, as the economic outlook deteriorates and tariffs also harm corporate profits. The S&P 500 is still below its pre-Liberation Day on April 2 and is down more than 10% from its record-breaking closing price in February.

The US dollar recorded its first weekly gain since mid-March, which was affected by mixed signals about improved U.S.-China relations.

When it comes to commodities, gold has performed hard as safe-haven capital flows slowed this week. The volatility that pushed gold to $3,500 an ounce earlier this week has disappeared as sentiment warms up that a trade deal may soon be reached. In addition, technically it is also unfavorable to bulls, especially if the United States announces any trade agreement over the weekend or early next week, the key to returning to the $3,500/ounce may require another escalation of global trade tensions.

Oil prices continued to fall, with weekly declines of more than 2% as the market expected a surplus of supply. According to earlier this weekA report shows that some OPEC+ member states proposed to increase oil production again in June, which has heightened market concerns about oversupply.

Looking forward next week, although the Federal Reserve has entered a "silence period" and the domestic market is about to enter the May Day holiday, there are still many major agendas, including but not limited to non-agricultural data, US first-quarter GDP data, PCE inflation data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate resolution

Foreign exchange market:The US dollar index is expected to close higher overall this week. The dollar index plunged to its lowest level since March 2022 as Trump's bombardment of Powell hurt investors' confidence in U.S. assets on Monday; but the dollar began to rebound as Trump expressed optimism about negotiations and softened his attitude towards Powell, and closed up for the first time in five weeks, closing at 99.61. As the US dollar rebounded slightly, non-US currencies were under pressure this week, the euro stopped rising four weeks against the US dollar, and the US dollar stopped falling three weeks against the yen. But the pound and the Australian dollar will still record a third straight week of gains.

Gold Market:Spot gold briefly hit the integer mark of $3,500/ounce on Tuesday, with a maximum increase of nearly 30% this year, but then it began to turn down due to the rise of the US dollar and the profit-taking settlement; on Wednesday, the decline in risk aversion sentiment and the rise in the US dollar caused spot gold to plummet by more than $100, and showed a range fluctuation on Thursday and Friday. It finally closed slightly at $3,319/ounce this week, the first time it closed down in three weeks. Analysts believe that large and violent fluctuations in gold may become the norm.

Crude Oil Market: International oil prices are expected to close lower overall this week, for the first time in three weeks. With the US imposing new sanctions on Iran and the US stock market rebounding, international crude oil rebounded slightly from its previous sharp sell-off at the beginning of the week. But international crude oil plunged, and easing of trade tensions limited its decline after sources said OPEC+ would consider accelerating its oil production growth in June.

Review of the news of this week

1. Trump "extreme pressure" the Federal Reserve staged a power secret war in the White House. At the beginning of this week, Trump launched a "serial offensive" against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on social media, criticizing his failure to cut interest rates in time as the "big failure" and threatening that "if Powell continues to delay, the US economy will pay the price." Its core logic directly points to election interests, accusing Powell of interest rate cuts in 2020 to help Biden win the election, and even compared the "slow action" of the Federal Reserve.

Although Trump has publicly studied the feasibility of early firing Powell, violent market turmoil forced him to change his words quickly. At Atkins' inauguration ceremony, Trump denied the firing plan, saying the media "distorted the facts", but still emphasized that "the Fed must cut interest rates more aggressively." On Wednesday, he once again spoke again, "may call Powell to put pressure on himself" and showed a posture of continuous intervention.

The Wall Street Journal disclosed that Treasury Secretary Bescent and Commerce Secretary Lutnik had tried their best to block the firing operation, warning that the move would beTriggers legal disputes and cannot change the direction of monetary policy. This power game highlights the unprecedented challenge of the Fed's independence.

2. Undercurrents in the US-Japan trade negotiations, currency manipulation red line has attracted attention.

Besent made a clear statement this week that the US-Japan negotiations "no exchange rate targets", emphasizing the principle of G7 market decisions, and trying to calm the outside world's concerns about the "currency war". Although Japan said the talks did not involve foreign exchange issues, the fluctuations in the yen showed that the market was highly sensitive to policy shifts.

The US side ranks tariffs, non-tariff barriers, subsidy policies and monetary manipulation, but in fact it builds a comprehensive pressure system. Becent also sent a signal that India's tariff agreement was close to being reached, showing a "multi-point breakthrough" trade strategic layout.

3. The Sino-US tariff game is in the fog of Rashomon policy, which has exacerbated market turmoil.

In response to the Wall Street Journal's report on the US's consideration of halving tariffs on China, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun solemnly stated: "The tariff war is initiated by the US, and the premise of dialogue is to cancel unilateral sanctions." He clearly denied that there was a tariff negotiation, directly pointing out that the US "confuses the public."

China's March retail data exceeded expectations to show economic resilience, but the market is more concerned about the risk of spillovers in the trade war. Bank of England Governor Bailey warned that "tax uncertainty is curbing commercial investment", implying that global central bank policy coordination is escalating.

4. IMF sounded the alarm: global growth expectations in 2025 were halved

IMF's latest report significantly lowered global growth expectations in 2025 by 0.5% to 2.8%, pointing out that the US tariff war has pushed up actual tariffs to its peak since 1914. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be only 1.4%, while the United States leads the decline in major economies due to policy uncertainty.

5. Washington Theatre of Power: From "group chat door" to "encrypted feast"

Defense Secretary Hegsey was exposed to disclose details of military operations in a family group chat. Although he insisted that the information was not confidential, the incident was highly related to the Pentagon leak last month. Although the White House denied rumors of a change of commander, the incident has exposed loopholes in the national security system management.

The Trump team launched a high-profile coin holder dinner event, and the top 25 people can be qualified for the White House visit. This operation of directly converting political influence into cryptocurrency market value has set a precedent for digital asset marketing for American politicians and has caused regulatory ethics controversy.

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